Maître Hector CASTRO MONTESINOS

Avocat au barreau de Paris

Compétences : Droit de la famille, des personnes et de leur patrimoine, Droit commercial, des affaires et de la concurrence, Droit des sociétés, Droit international et de l'Union européenne, Droit des étrangers et de la nationalité

Barreau : Paris

Adresse : 17 RUE ALFRED ROLL 75017 PARIS

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Publié le 17/06/2025

L’éventuelle dévaluation du peso mexicain : ce que les investisseurs doivent savoir

Article juridique - Droit immobilier

Par Me Hector CASTRO MONTESINOS

L’éventuelle dévaluation du peso mexicain : ce que les investisseurs doivent savoir

Le peso mexicain pourrait faire face à une éventuelle dévaluation dans les prochains mois, selon les derniers rapports économiques publiés par la Banque de México au premier semestre 2025. Cette situation s’explique principalement par deux facteurs majeurs : la baisse des taux d’intérêt au Mexique et la politique commerciale restrictive des États-Unis.

Depuis le début de l’année, les investisseurs étrangers retirent massivement leurs capitaux des titres de dette mexicains. En mai 2025, ces sorties ont atteint plus de 46 milliards de pesos, ce qui affaiblit la demande en pesos sur les marchés financiers. La conséquence directe est une pression à la baisse sur la valeur de la monnaie nationale.

Cette baisse potentielle de la valeur du peso présente à la fois des opportunités et des risques pour les investisseurs étrangers, notamment français. D’un côté, un peso plus faible signifie que leur argent en euros peut acheter plus de biens et de services au Mexique. Cela rend les investissements immobiliers ou industriels plus accessibles et souvent plus rentables.

D’un autre côté, cette dévaluation éventuelle peut aussi entraîner une inflation locale, augmentant les coûts des matériaux ou des services sur le long terme. De plus, si les investisseurs souhaitent rapatrier leurs gains en euros, ils risquent de subir une perte en raison du taux de change défavorable.

La Banque de México recommande la prudence, en particulier face aux incertitudes liées aux politiques commerciales américaines et aux taux d’intérêt. Pour les investisseurs, il est essentiel d’adopter une stratégie qui prend en compte ces fluctuations, comme la couverture contre le risque de change.

En résumé, l’éventuelle dévaluation du peso est une possibilité à ne pas négliger. Elle peut offrir de belles opportunités à condition d’être bien préparé face aux risques qu’elle comporte.

Notre cabinet se tient à votre disposition pour répondre à toutes vos questions et vous accompagner dans l’analyse et la gestion des risques liés à vos investissements au Mexique.

https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/reportes-sobre-el-sistema-financiero/%7B68ACFA8B-B604-BD70-1808-735C03A155ED%7D.pdf